DC, a Few Hours Ago
The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO’s) publication, The Budget and Economic Outlook (pdf here) states that the current recession will end as soon as late 2009, even without the stimulus:
CBO anticipates that the current recession, which started
in December 2007, will last until the second half of 2009,
making it the longest recession since World War II.
This recession, however, may not result in the highest unemployment
rate. That rate, in CBO’s forecast, rises to 9.2 percent
by early 2010 (up from a low of 4.4 percent at the
end of 2006) but is still below the 10.8 percent rate seen
near the end of the 1981–1982 recession.In preparing its economic forecast, CBO assumes that
current laws and policies governing federal spending and
taxes do not change. This forecast, therefore, does not
include the effects of a possible fiscal stimulus package.
On that basis, CBO anticipates that real GDP will drop
by 2.2 percent in calendar year 2009, a steep decline.
CBO expects the economy to begin a slow recovery in the
second half of 2009 and to grow by a modest 1.5 percent
in 2010 [emph added].
Food for thought. You might want to call or email your Senator and ask if he/she’s read the report. Especially since this prognosis is markedly different from some others that we’ve heard in DC over the last few days. . .
11 responses so far ↓
Instapundit » Blog Archive » MARK SANFORD: We’re moving close to ‘a savior-based economy’. Plus, CBO Predicts Recession Will … // February 8, 2009 at 10:10 pm
[...] UPDATE: More. [...]
Just Me // February 8, 2009 at 10:45 pm
All the more reason for the Democrats to get the stimulus passed more quickly. First, because then they can take credit for the recovery, and second, so that they don’t miss this opportunity to spend money.
s sommer // February 8, 2009 at 11:34 pm
Nancy Pelosi’s private plane is just as obnoxious as those of the Big 3 automakers. Our government is just as broke as they are. Get Real!!
Moe Lane » So the CBO report says we’ll be out of a recession this year… // February 9, 2009 at 8:53 am
[...] which way (see also here, here, and here). That’s without a “stimulus”: with one, we’re going to see short-term [...]
Five Questions for President Obama Tonight « Acre of Independence // February 9, 2009 at 8:58 am
[...] About the Acre ← CBO: Recession Ends 2009, Even Without Stimulus [...]
So the CBO report says we’ll be out of a recession this year… - Moe_Lane’s blog - RedState // February 9, 2009 at 11:14 am
[...] which way (see also here, here, and here). That’s without a “stimulus”: with one, we’re going to see short-term [...]
2/9-PCW Newsline: PCW Weapons of Mass Political Destruction Card, Tag Teams Jockey for Position, Preview of Tomorrow’s PCW Extreme Political TV « Political Championship Wrestling // February 14, 2009 at 1:15 pm
[...] Louise, Sarah Palin Internet Coalition, MudflatsPolitics: No Compromises…, Not So Subtle, Acre of IndependenceJohn McCain: Fake Virginia, Start Thinking Right, The BiovuacCode Pink: Paranormal Dimension, [...]
hpx83 // February 15, 2009 at 6:02 pm
Sadly, I do not think the recession will end in 2009. TARP + Stimulus package + TARP II + Stimulus package II (trust me – it will be coming) is likely to keep the US in a recession for at least a couple of years, if not more.
Apart from the finance sector, the american economy would probably have turned around somehow during 2010, where it not for all this “stimulus spending”. Democrat pork sandwhich, but the republicans had probably done something similar if they had been the ones in power.
//hpx Save capitalism
EckerNet.Com » Blog Archive » Deep Thoughts With Kevin // February 16, 2009 at 2:13 am
[...] to the CBO, our recession will end in 2009 regardless of whether a stimulus is used or not. This is good and bad for the country at the same [...]
Proof Stimuli Haven’t Been Working | BipolarNation.com // February 27, 2009 at 11:48 am
[...] Congress’ own budget office says this recession would end relatively soon even without a [...]
AOI Comes Back and Makes a Top 100 List! « Acre of Independence // May 17, 2009 at 9:42 pm
[...] since I re-launched (after combining my two previous blogs I ran on Google’s Blogger), I have maligned the stimulus frequently, even pointed out that the government’s non-partisan watchdog declared the [...]