AOI made the “Top 100 Libertarian Websites and Blogs” list a few weeks back, while I was on my little work-induced hiatus. Thanks, and yet another impetus to keep on writing! I wonder if Secretary Napolitano and the folks at DHS are taking notice too, ha!
Over the past several months since I re-launched (after combining my two previous blogs I ran on Google’s Blogger), I have maligned the stimulus frequently, even pointed out that the government’s non-partisan watchdog declared the recession would end even without spending a deficit-digging $1 trillion; I derided early Obama administration plans (quickly shelved, apparently) to make public service mandatory; and I drew the ire of many Detroit Auto Industry backers when I stated that rather than bailing out the big three, the government should allow them to go bankrupt (in Chrysler’s case, that looks like it is going to be win-win for everyone on all sides of the issue, since they received billions from the government AND are going bankrupt!). Occasionally I wrote about the beer I brew, too! It has been fun to write here a few times a week, then sit back and read the comments that come in.
As stated earlier, I took a month off to focus on work, but it is great to be back. And with an award for the blog to boot! The blog is not standing still, either. AOI has now ventured into twitter; you can find the feed HERE. I’ve done just about everything else online, so I decided to bite the bullet and complete the circle with Twitter. The circle of unlife that is!
The Circle of Unlife*
Thanks to all the people who stop by here regularly and read this blog, post comments, or email me to see why the heck I am not manning the keyboard. Keep reading if you find the stuff here interesting, and if not, let me know, and bail out for greener pastures!
*Thanks to Hoyawolf, who posted the original, non-defaced Circle of Unlife on, of all places, Facebook!
Posted in Life, Media, Politics
Tagged Bailout, Hefeweizen, Homebrewing, Mandatory Service, Obama, Stimulus, Taxes
So far, most American workers have received little to no measurable benefit from the American Recovery and Investment [Stimulus], Act, especially the unemployed people and their families in the poorest parts of the country.
On January 8th, then President-elect Obama gave a well-received speech to build congressional and public support for the Stimulus, at that time carrying a taxpayer-funded tab in the neighborhood of $819 billion. At the time, President-elect Obama stated:
[W]e need to act boldly and act now to reverse these cycles. That’s why we need to put money in the pockets of the American people, create new jobs, and invest in our future. That’s why we need to re-start the flow of credit and restore the rules of the road that will ensure a crisis like this never happens again. That work begins with this plan—a plan I am confident will save or create at least three million jobs over the next few years [emph added].
Remembering that even proponents of stimulus admit the “save” part of that often repeated canard will always be difficult to measure, it is interesting to note what the Administration actually DID predict, and how those predictions are faring thus far. From Impact of The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Investment Plan a pamphlet issued to market the immediate effects the stimulus would have to alleviate unemployment and create job growth:
[W]e expect the [Stimulus] plan to more than meet the goal of creating or saving 3 million jobs by 2010Q4. There are two important points to note, however: First, the likely scale of employment loss is extremely large. The U.S. economy has already lost nearly 2.6 million jobs since the business cycle peak in December 2007. In the absence of stimulus, the economy could lose another 3 to 4 million more. Thus, we are working to counter a potential total job loss of at least 5 million. As Figure 1 shows, even with the large prototypical package, the unemployment rate in 2010Q4 is predicted to be approximately 7.0%, which is well below the approximately 8.8% that would result in the absence of a plan.
Here is the graphic that the administration used to illustrate the stimulus’ effect on the unemployment rate:
So how have the administrations predictions fared thus far? Take a look:
The April unemployment rate was 8.9 percent, well over a percentage point above the administration’s predictions. While economic conditions are notoriously challenging to predict, the fact that this stimulus was supposed to dramatically alleviate job loss over a 1-3 year period beginning as early as RIGHT NOW nonetheless calls many of the other predictions used to market the stimulus bill into question.
Where the stimulus will actually, well, stimulate the economy, if anywhere, is another valid question. It has done little to alleviate economic stress in some of the poorest regions of the country. For instance in Alabama, unemployment
has doubled in the past year from 4.5 percent to 9 percent. But here in Dallas County, it is 18.2 percent. In neighboring Wilcox County, is it more than 22 percent. That is staggering: One in five people you pass are unemployed. . .Selma [Alabama] would appear, in the short term, a perfect target for the Obama stimulus plan. Selma has a wish list of $40 million in projects, from street repairs and other infrastructure to help with the new riverfront development. But not a dime has reached here yet. “We have not gotten a response on it at this point,” [Selma Mayor George P.] Evans says. “It is very frustrating. The entitlement cities with greater populations have gotten a lot of theirs, but the smaller cities like Selma have not gotten theirs yet. …[emph added].
Downtown Selma, Alabama
Of course there are always exceptions, and one city that is likely to benefit from this stimulus is the perpetually stimulated Washington DC metropolitan area:
[The Federal Government could hire] as many as 600,000 [people], according to the Partnership for Public Service. That’s across the federal public sector over the next three to four years. President Obama’s proposed budget for FY 2010 could create all of those jobs, maybe more, according to the Partnership for Public Service. They’re adding up the numbers of retiring workers, plus the number that will be made available because of contracted work that’ll be done by government, or brand new jobs created by the stimulus. . . The Pentagon workforce will increase by 14,000 employees. Social Security is looking to hire more than three thousand people. In addition, they’ll have to replace any retiring workers, which could add up to more than 4,200 hires. The Department of Veterans Affairs is hiring 10,000 new employees. The Department of Homeland Security is hiring 7,000 to 10,000 new employees.
Cranes are a Ubiquitous Part of the DC Skyline
Even the recent April unemployment numbers, dismal as they were, were alleviated considerably by growth in the government sector:
April’s net job loss total actually was somewhat misleading: Private-sector employment actually fell by 611,000 jobs, but government hiring, which added 66,000 jobs, mostly for the upcoming census, offset some of them. Although April’s job numbers reflect a welcome slowing of the downturn, a deeper look suggests that it will be a long, hard climb back to full employment. The number of long-term unemployed — those out of work for 27 weeks or longer — continues to rise alarmingly.
So if you live in a part of the country that is not Washington DC, or have no desire to spend the rest of your working days as a GS-11 in the bowels of the Census Bureau, Department of Transportation, or the Pentagon, then you are probably not yet partaking of the stimulus’ bounty. So watch the numbers, count the cranes on the skyline of your hometown, and ensure you let your local/state/federal representatives know how well they are spending your hard earned money. And your children’s money.
Post Script: I lifted the chart juxtaposing the actual unemployment numbers from this site HERE.
Posted in Economics, Economy, Politics
Tagged Obama, Bailout, Wordpress Political Blogs, Stimulus, Incompetent Government
New Orleans, the Forgotten War - Is Over
President Obama gave a well-received speech last week concerning the Iraq troop withdrawal plan; however, early this morning, another troop withdrawal actually occurred, finally removing American troops from a long term deployment to a region prone to high levels of violence, massive government incompetence and corruption, and devastating natural disasters. No, it was not Iraq, Afghanistan, or even the Balkans (troops are all still in those places); instead, the last troops redeployed silently and without fanfare, from the troubled city of New Orleans:
Three and a half years after Hurricane Katrina, the National Guard is pulling the last of its troops out of New Orleans this weekend, leaving behind a city still desperate and dangerous. Residents long distrustful of the city’s police force are worried they will have to fend for themselves. “I don’t know if crime will go up after these guys leave. But I know a lot more of us will be packing our own pieces now to make sure we’re protected,” said Calvin Stewart, owner of a restaurant and store.
The National Guardsmen were welcomed as liberators when they arrived in force in a big convoy more than four days after Katrina struck New Orleans in August 2005 and plunged the city into anarchy. The force was eventually 15,000 strong.Their numbers dwindled as civil authority returned in the months after the storm. But then, after a surge of bloodshed, 360 troops were dispatched in June 2006 to help the depleted police department patrol the streets.
“One of the biggest things we did was keep those places safe so people could rebuild,” said Sgt. Wayne Lewis, a New Orleans native who has been patrolling the streets since January 2007. “People would put the things to rebuild in their houses and thieves would come along and take them right out again. We stopped a lot of that.”New Orleans had 210 murders in 2007, making it the murder capital of America, with the highest per-capita rate in the country.
The Guard’s departure, which will take place after the final patrol ends at 3 a.m. Sunday, will be low-key. There will be no convoy, no bands playing. The last few Guardsmen on the street will check in their vehicles and head home for good. “I don’t think the city is ready for us to leave,” said Lt. Ronald Brown, who has been part of Task Force Gator since April 2007. “I’d like to see us stay. I think we make a difference, but I guess it’s a money thing.”[emph added].
Army Patrols in the Big Easy
I had not realized the National Guard still had forces deployed to New Orleans in what amounts to a stability operation, years after Hurricane Katrina had ended. Although their numbers were in the low hundreds, the psychological effect of their presence in New Orleans’ neighborhoods speaks volumes to the lack of faith citizens have in their own civil service there. Who could blame them? New Orleans Police were filmed looting stores during the Hurricane, if you remember. And at least the looters, as depraved as they were, stayed within city limits; hundreds of New Orleans police simply deserted their posts during or immediately after the hurricane and fled, contributing to the breakdown of order within the city. So kudos to the National Guard for helping to maintain order in New Orleans over the past three years. Too bad that your efforts did not rate any more fanfare than a few articles below the fold.
Hopefully the embarassment of requiring National Guard troops to maintain order for YEARS after a natural disaster will compel New Orleans leaders to professionalize their civil service, and fight corruption at all levels. Who wants to return to a city that requires an Army patrolling its streets to maintain order? It’s depressing that a person could substitute “Iraq” “Afghanistan” or “Haiti” for New Orleans in my opening article quote, and the article would have read just fine.
As one blogger wrote (sarcastically): “In less than four years our military stabilized the region and re-established law, order, and democracy for its citizens.”
Post Script: The fact that civil order broke down in New Orleans, and even years later required national guard patrols to maintain it, is a solid example/argument for the 2nd Amendment. Not that the authorities noticed, however, since they attempted to confiscate all firearms, even legally owned/registered guns, in the hurricane’s aftermath. The only civilians who were to be left with guns in New Orleans were criminals – and Blackwater.
Post Post Script: Hopefully the trillion-dollar Stimulus package will benefit New Orleans, since most of the city and its government is ‘shovel ready’; oh, wait a minute. . .
Posted in Military, National Security, Politics
Tagged Corruption, Stimulus, New Orleans, Incompetent Government
787 Billion Dollars (the amount of funds allocated in the recent stimulus bill) goes a long way, in case you were wondering. Here is what the number looks like when it is written out:
Yeah, that’s big. According to the Gartman Letter, here are some other things that the government could purchase with that kind of plata, instead of the myriad of dipsarate items contained in the current bill, which Congress passed without reading:
$787 billion would buy 4.6 million homes here in the US at the most recent median price of $170,300 for January 2008.
$787 billion would send a check for $2,623 to every man, woman and child in the US.
$787 billion would fund 7.7 million four year scholarships to the average private university in the US at current tuition rates.
$787 billion would fund 30 million full four year scholarships to the nation’s public universities.
$787 billion would buy 27.7 million cars at the average price of an automobile sold last year in the US.
$787 billion would fund four full months of a tax holiday in the US.
Interesting, no? Thanks to Jennifer Rubin for pointing those numbers out.
By the way, $787 Billion would buy 23 million Dodge Challenger R/T’s too, which is a pretty good, fast way to stimulate the economy, in my opinion. In Alpine White, of course.
UPDATE II: Yes, this is Ape week here at AOI, what can I say? Check out THIS correction over at Huffington Post:
John Gibson Did Not Compare Eric Holder To Monkey With Bright Blue Scrotum (UPDATED) The Huffington Post has learned that the below video has been doctored. We regret the error and apologize to Mr. Gibson. John Gibson never compared Eric Holder to a monkey with a bright blue scrotum. Rather, as seen in the unedited video below, Gibson played audio of Holder saying “nation of cowards” — so his full, unedited remarks were:”We were talking about Eric Holder today on the radio and his comment that this is a nation of cowards.” The video was doctored to include Trace Gallagher’s voice saying, “bright blue scrotum” where Gibson played Holder’s “nation of cowards” remark. The Huffington Post does not know the source of the video’s doctoring — it was picked up off TVNewser.
Awesome retraction. Hopefully our Acre of Independence editors will fact-check our posts in a stern manner, and preclude us from ever having to retract any scrotum-related comments!
________________________
UPDATE: The Post caved:
On Thursday night the tabloid newspaper apologized “to those who were offended by the image,” in an editorial on its Web site. “But it has been taken as something else – as a depiction of President Obama, as a thinly veiled expression of racism. “This most certainly was not its intent; to those who were offended by the image, we apologize. “However, there are some in the media and in public life who have had differences with The Post in the past – and they see the incident as an opportunity for payback. “To them, no apology is due. “Sometimes a cartoon is just a cartoon – even as the opportunists seek to make it something else.”
Drudge links to a story that the Post ran last summer, citing Al Sharpton’s tax problems, perhaps the genesis of the protest?
This Cartoon appeared in Yesterday’s New York Post
Is it racist? Al Sharpton apparently thinks so:
The Rev. Al Sharpton and community activists say the image lampooning President Barack Obama’s stimulus plan is racist. Activists, politicians and civil rights leaders gathered Thursday outside the New York Post headquarters in Manhattan. CBS 2 HD spoke with many protestors who expressed outrage over the cartoon. “I’m outraged that they’d have the audacity to use this cartoon and not think that it would have an impact for people…how in the world do you have the audacity?” asked Hazel Dukes, President of the New York State NAACP and member of the organization’s national board of directors. “It’s kind of a vicious personal attack. The attacks are beginning. They obviously have a racist character, which is highly upsetting and disappointing,” said Upper West Side resident Michael Skakum. Post Editor in Chief Col Allan issued a statement on Wednesday saying, “The cartoon is a clear parody of a current news event, to wit the shooting of a violent chimpanzee in Connecticut. It broadly mocks Washington’s efforts to revive the economy.” Rev. Sharpton wants the Post to take some action against the cartoonist and the editor who approved it. Otherwise, he said, he’ll ask advertisers to boycott. There was no further comment from the newspaper.
Isn’t the cartoonist implying that the Stimulus bill is so bad that crazed monkeys (like the one in the tony Connecticut suburbs that bit the hands and face off of someone a few days ago before being shot to death by the cops) could have written it? That what I inferred when I looked at it. It could be just me, but I don’t find it racist at all. But maybe if the Stamford police had shot a violent, distraught circus clown to death over the weekend, the cartoonist would not have struck a nerve. No one likes clowns, after all, and they have no advocacy groups. . .
Porn Tax: Tea-Party Worthy or a Test of Darwinian Theory?
That’s what New York is planning on doing:
A state proposal to add a 4% tax for downloading movies and music will also apply to Internet porn. Gov. Paterson recently suggested the so-called iPod tax to help close a $15 billion budget deficit, but few realized the levy would also apply to XXX-rated material. The skin industry denounced the move as a cheap political stunt.” The last thing any of us need is an additional tax,” said Steven Hirsch, the CEO of Vivid Entertainment Group and self-proclaimed King of Porn. “These are very difficult times and nobody can afford to lose even one customer.” It would also apply only to businesses located in New York State, leaving some to wonder if companies would relocate to avoid the tax. Conservatives railed against the tax, but for a very different reason.”By taxing it you’re legitimizing it,” said New York Conservative Party Chairman Michael Long, adding that government shouldn’t profit from porn. “If you’re taxing it – how can it be wrong? I don’t know how you can sink much deeper [emph added].
Here at the Acre of Independence, we approach the notion of a proposed internet porn tax as a test of darwinian theory. Sure, like libertarian porn king Steve Hirsch, we balk at all tax increases on principle alone. But anyone who actually pays for adult internet entertainment deserves to be taxed. Internet porn tax is a tax on the ignorant, pure and simple. The ignorant in this case being the uninitiated, who don’t realize that there is so much free internet porn out there that you can practically (as Drew Carey once said) see it from space. A hint for all you newly-subscribed AOL dial-up users: Free Porn is not a myth, I HAVE SEEN IT!
Steve Hirsch probably knows this as well, and my guess is that incremental cost increases to his readily available, commoditized product will drive the remainder of Vivid’s internet customers to hit “the google” a little bit more to find the promised land of free adult entertainment . So goodbye, Vivid Internet download division, we hardly knew ye. But don’t count Vivid down for the count yet. Hirsch still his DVD division, and the cash cow of piping Vivid films into hotels for $9.95 a pop, at least until people stuck in crappy hotels figure out that the promised land of free porn is simply one wireless connection away.
Post Script: A special thanks to all of my co-workers and friends (and especially my brother), who educated me on the ins and outs of adult internet entertainment, a subject I obviously know nothing (less than nothing, actually) about, as I prepared this post.
Post Post Script: New Yorkers, is there some wiggle room on that iTunes tax? Find a way to make that tax uncollectable, so those of us who buy EVERYTHING on the internet do not suddenly find ourselves funding the social welfare provisions of the stimulus bill!
UPDATE: Once the government starts taxing your porn, nothing is sacred; Oregon state lawmakers have proposed a 1900%, yes, that’s NINETEEN-HUNDRED PERCENT, tax on each barrel of beer produced in Oregon.That’s an increase of $49.71 per barrel of beer produced in the state. A pint of beer, after brewers passed the tax down to consumers, would go from $4.50 to $6.oo. This proposed tax increase is certainly worthy of 10,000 smashed kegs on the steps of the state capitol, no? Well, maybe 10,000 kegs of Busch, anyway, blecch.
Of course, you can still brew 200 gallons of your own beer and wine each year, as we do here at the Acre of Independence; no one feels the sting of sin taxes here. If you want to avoid funding your local or state government’s stupid, failing programs, or protest their attempts to balance the budget by raising taxes on the things you love (and calling those things a costly sin), then consider buying your homebrewing kit. What better way to thumb your nose at an encroaching, failed bureaucracy than drinking five gallons of home-brewed IPA?
Posted in Economics, Economy, Humor, Politics, Pop Culture
Tagged Bailout, Taxes, Homebrewing, Stimulus, porn, Vivid Video, social welfare, new york, Jenna Jameson, Oregon Brewing tax
So, which road are we on?
The stimulus has passed both Houses now, with the support of only three Republicans, all in the Senate. The trillion dollar bill, which supposedly no one in Congress took the time to read before voting on, flew through Congress in the fast lane, and will be signed into law next week, presumably after the President returns from his President’s Day holiday in Chicago.
As the stimulus marketing campaign came to a close, some other details about the bill have become clear, and there are many indications that it would have been valuable to discuss the merits of the bill’s specific provisions a bit more, rather than wax poetically about things like “winter”, and “hardship”.
UPDATE: Here are Politico’s questions for the President. Not bad, we overlap a bit, too.
I like this quote from Senator Feinstein in the article: “My advice would be next time the administration should write the bill, and not leave it to all the disparate odds and ends of the Congress.” Right on. Everyone seems to have come with a list of stuff they wanted to fund for this bill.
The President will have a prime time press conference tonight; here are five questions I would ask him if I attended:
1. Mr. President, according to a report from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the current recession is going to end and the economy is expected to grow later this year, even without the stimulus. Why are you putting so much effort into legislation to end the recession if it is going to end without the federal government pushing us deeper into deficit spending?
2. President Obama, sir, how will your administration avoid the pitfalls that other industrialized nations like Japan experienced when enacting similar large scale economic stimulus measures?
3. Mr. President, Congressman Barney Frank recently discussed the possibility of regulating the pay and compensation of CEOs, even those not involved in the of the current bailout process; do you have a position on this, and do you think the Federal government should have a role in determining compensation for private enterprises?
4. Mr. President, after this package is passed, does your administration intend to ask for any additional funds beyond this bill to stimulate the economy or help troubled firms?
5. Mr. President, you have stated in the past that you are a comic book fan; do you plan to see The Watchmen on the March 9th premiere, and if so, in the theater or a private screening? Does Rahm Emanuel remind you of Rorschach?
Come on, I had to have a throwaway, my first four questions are pretty darn good; I could have thrown in a literary reference like Mr. President, Who is John Galt? or something, but nerd pop culture was low hanging fruit. These five questions are likely better than some of the softballs or tripe that will be lobbed at the President tonight, in any case.
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Bailout, Obama, Obama Press Conference, Rahm Emanuel, Rorschach, Stimulus, Watchmen
DC, a Few Hours Ago
The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO’s) publication, The Budget and Economic Outlook (pdf here) states that the current recession will end as soon as late 2009, even without the stimulus:
CBO anticipates that the current recession, which started
in December 2007, will last until the second half of 2009,
making it the longest recession since World War II.
This recession, however, may not result in the highest unemployment
rate. That rate, in CBO’s forecast, rises to 9.2 percent
by early 2010 (up from a low of 4.4 percent at the
end of 2006) but is still below the 10.8 percent rate seen
near the end of the 1981–1982 recession.In preparing its economic forecast, CBO assumes that
current laws and policies governing federal spending and
taxes do not change. This forecast, therefore, does not
include the effects of a possible fiscal stimulus package.
On that basis, CBO anticipates that real GDP will drop
by 2.2 percent in calendar year 2009, a steep decline.
CBO expects the economy to begin a slow recovery in the
second half of 2009 and to grow by a modest 1.5 percent
in 2010 [emph added].
Food for thought. You might want to call or email your Senator and ask if he/she’s read the report. Especially since this prognosis is markedly different from some others that we’ve heard in DC over the last few days. . .
Posted in Economics, Economy, Politics
Tagged CBO Report, Congressional Budget Office, Obama, Recession, Stimulus, Wordpress Political Blogs
